a different view on investing



In this section you can read about some of the dreams we have had in the past, and a review of their outcomes. The more recent dreams are provided along with the current edition (maybe after reading this section, you will be inspired to join us).

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7.  Dream: THE MARKET INDEX (DJIA) - 19th February 2008:

It is New Year, and I, the dreamer, am discussing with a number of colleagues where the market index will be at the year end. Many of them take the view that the index will have fallen to around 7,900, whereas I am less pessimistic. My view is that the index will close at the year end at 8,025 or 8,026.

Interpretation (as in the newsletter at the time of the dream): The index which concerns us most here is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and you will find its progress, or rather lack of progress, portrayed in our Model Portfolio chart. So, it must be assumed the reference to 'the index' is to the DJIA.

The New Year and the year end could of course be references to either the start of 2008 or 2009, but the dream comes at an odd moment for either. Any prediction for the Dow this year ought to have been made at the beginning of January, and similarly a prediction for 2009 may be considered premature. Our best guess is that the New Year refers to 19th February 2008, and the level of the DJIA at the 'year end' is a reference to its close on 18th February 2009.

Enactment to date: We were wrong about dream referring to February 09. It was indeed the end of 2008. With uncanny precision, the dream has it right to within exactly twenty points on the Dow. The closing low of the year has been 8,046 on 17th November 2008, after which an inevitable bear market rally has taken place. The dream was spot on!

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Last Updated: January 18st, 2009 - Copyright 2002- 2010